Why we're headed to Denver

by LDFan, Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:58:55 AM EST

"Prince George's County Executive Jack B. Johnson, a Democratic convention delegate pledged to support Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, said yesterday that he thinks Sen. Barack Obama has "in a real sense" won the Democratic nomination and that he now plans to support Obama at the August convention."

"...pledged delegates are under no obligation to stick by their candidate and that Johnson is free to defect if he chooses."

"The freedom to change your mind or change your vote does exist," Paulson said. "They're not like superdelegates, but they do have this flexibility."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051202554_ 2.html

Well...if pledged delegates are free to change their mind...and super delegates are free to change their mind...then the delegate count as is is basically meaningless!

Since Obama has not rejected the switch of a pledged Clinton delegate; I don't see how he could complain about the switch of any pledged Obama delegates.

We're headed to Denver!

P.S. No more talk about "the will of the voters!" This guy was a "pledged" Clinton delegate elected by the voters!




Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Convention, Floor Fight (all tags)

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Re: Why we're headed to Denver (none / 0)

Remember, when Kennedy took it to the floor pledged delegates couldn't switch...now (as evidenced above) they can.


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 09:59:48 AM EST

Re: Why we're headed to Denver (none / 0)

You know, there's a difference between "can" and "will".

Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if all the delegates and superdelegates from the states Clinton said didn't matter, like all the caucus states, Virgina, Wisconsin, and interestingly enough, Maryland, went over to Barack Obama, since Senator Clinton doesn't find them important enough to win a nomination, nor important enough to count towards her bogus "popular vote" argument.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:46:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why we're headed to Denver (none / 0)

AHH...What a tangled web we weave.


Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:03:09 AM EST

It happened today... (none / 0)

I don't think that a lack of statement by Obama is a demonstration that he approves of said switch.  Moreover, if you think this is a trend of elected delegates switching, then you will be extremely disappointed in August.  It's not going to happen.  Both campaigns vetted their delegates and obviously Clinton did a poor job with this one.  It does not mean that Obama did a poor job of vetting his delegates.  Keep dreamin'.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:03:44 AM EST

However (2.00 / 1)

it proves the "delegate count" is just as meaningless as the "popular vote count."

Over 4,700 delegates are headed to Denver and won't vote until the end of August.

This thing is not over!


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:06:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Except (none / 0)

he'll probably win the popular vote too, so meaningless.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:25:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Except (none / 0)

So NOW it`s the popular vote !!


Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:30:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Goalpost moving (none / 0)


is an Obama specialty.
by BrandingIron17 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:39:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton is the one moving the goalposts (2.00 / 1)

First she said it was about delegates, now popular vote. I'm simply saying that he'll win the popular vote too, not that it matters since you're never going to know who REALLY won the popular vote.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:43:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No. (none / 0)

It just demonstrates that Clinton did not do a good job vetting her delegates.  The pledged delegate count is based on the votes of the various states.  That one person switched does not mean that the metric is wrong.  One switch out of 3600 delegates does not mean that the metric does not reflect the will of the voters.  Oh and Hillary is not going to win the popular vote.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:57:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why we're headed to Denver (2.00 / 1)

This guy should have respected the will of the voters.  I hope Obama ignores his endorsement.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:06:10 AM EST

Obama won't ignore this endorsement (none / 0)

Way back in February, in Cleveland, he said he'd take any endorsement he could get.
This door is going to swing both ways kids - this fight is going to the convention.
by pan230oh on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:29:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama won't ignore this endorsement (2.00 / 1)

No it isn't.  You guys are banking on a long shot.  I think deep down you realize this.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:33:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama's campaign was happy! (2.00 / 1)

"Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler, the co-chairman of Obama's campaign in Maryland, called Johnson's support "helpful,"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051202554_ 2.html


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:08:34 AM EST

Re: Obama's campaign was happy! (2.00 / 1)

That is too bad.  I would hope the pledged delegates at least stay pledged until the 1st floor vote at the convention.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:10:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's campaign was happy! (2.00 / 1)

I guess BO was right... RULES ARE RULES.


Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:12:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's campaign was happy! (2.00 / 1)

I can see how Clinton supporters are grasping at any straw right now.  If you guys think the pledged delegates are going to give Hillary the nomination in Denver then you are going to be disappointed fairly soon.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:26:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's campaign was happy! (none / 0)

I'm saying settle in for a long ride


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:28:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's campaign was happy! (2.00 / 1)

It will be over in a few weeks.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:32:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why we're headed to Denver (2.00 / 1)

A very good thing that the convention isn't until late August.

If, by then, it's apparent that Obama can't beat McCain we still have a chance to fix it.

It ain't over till the Mile High sings.


by wblynch on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:13:04 AM EST

Worst conclusion ever: (2.00 / 1)

"the delegate count as is is basically meaningless!"

Wrong.  The disloyal delegate count will be no more than a handful.  They are almost always candidate loyalists.  This is an aberration (which, as an Obama supporter, I don't think is useful).

Seriously, the thought of this going all the way to August is frustrating.


by Slim Tyranny on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:13:05 AM EST

also (2.00 / 1)

extremely unlikely.  All the party leadership says it won't go to Denver, some anonymous commenter saying otherwise on a blog doesn't change anything.


by semiquaver on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:25:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Here's the thing... (none / 0)

Johnson is the County Executive for Prince George's County.  Which is roughly 62% African American.  Obama won PG County 79% to 20%.

Johnson is making this switch because it's politically expedient for him.  I really don't think this switch is evidence of some upcoming trend of flippers.  It's just one politician making a political decision.  

Linky references:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Geor ge's_County#Demographics
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/state/#MD
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/annapolis /2007/12/obama_campaign_claims_100_elec. html  


First and Foremost: A Democrat in the White House
by mascho on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:14:04 AM EST

Re: Here's the thing... (none / 0)

Doesn't matter...he was "pledged" and now he switched. That opens up the possibility of thousands of other "pledged" delegates to do the same thing!


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:17:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But they won't (2.00 / 1)

your wish will remain unfulfilled.  Best to make your peace with it now.


by JJE on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:52:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's the thing... (none / 0)


  But.. But.. But.. It`s the will of the people that matter. What a crock.
Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:20:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

However... (none / 0)

this proves that "pledged" delegates are actually no different than "automatic delegates".

Any of these people can change their mind in Denver.

So I ask you...who in their right mind would walk away from a legitimate shot at the white house just because Tim Russert thinks it's over?


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:16:08 AM EST

How is she (none / 0)

going to change the minds of any delegates when she's losing delegates to him?


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:27:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How is she (none / 0)

It's a long time between now and Denver...a long time


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:29:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And what do you expect (2.00 / 1)

to happen between now and August? If Rev. Wright didn't bring him down, what can?


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:33:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: However... (2.00 / 1)

No one EVER doubted pledged delegates could change their minds.  The only thing it proves is that Hillary should have done a better job choosing this pledged delegate.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:29:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why we're headed to Denver (none / 0)

YEP


by LindaSFNM on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:17:36 AM EST

Re: Why we're headed to Denver (none / 0)

Eh, it's over. Clinton spokesmen have been saying for weeks that this thing ends in June.


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:20:33 AM EST

Re: Why we're headed to Denver (none / 0)

You sure about that?

"Sen. Hillary Clinton will take her fight for the Democratic presidential nomination all the way to the party's convention this summer if she or Barack Obama hasn't won enough delegates to clinch the party's nomination, her campaign adviser said Friday."

"Clinton's camp asserted she will campaign until someone reaches 2,209 delegates, the number needed if the disputed delegates from Michigan and Florida were to be included."

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2 008/05/10/20080510hillary-democrats510.h tml

And there's more: "Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (D-N.Y.) senior advisers said Friday they are willing to push the nomination fight beyond the last contests on June 3 if neither candidate reaches the delegate requirement that includes Michigan and Florida." "If neither of the candidates gets to 2,209, then the [nominating] process continues," Wolfson said." "If the contest is not resolved by June 3, as Wolfson and Garin strongly hinted they do not think it will be, then the campaign would take on the shape of a general election campaign, Wolfson said." "Neither man would rule out taking the nomination fight to the convention."

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/clinton -camp-willing-to-go-beyond-june-3-2008-0 5-09.htm


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:23:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why we're headed to Denver (2.00 / 1)

And after June 3rd, there will be a candidate with more that 50% of the delegates no matter how MI and FL are resolved.
by kjblair2 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:25:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why we're headed to Denver (none / 0)

So? The delegates don't vote until the end of August and a lot can change between now and then


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:29:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The guy is a jerk, and an aberration (none / 0)

Don't get your hopes up. Most delegates take their commitments very seriously.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:21:30 AM EST

Re: The guy is a jerk, and an aberration (none / 0)

When this thing ends they will only be seperated by a little more than 100 delegates...

So...I ask you...do you want to quantify "most"


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:24:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The guy is a jerk, and an aberration (2.00 / 1)

Most = 3016/3017 or 99.96%.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:31:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"This thing" is over. (none / 0)


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:36:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

President Obama (none / 0)

First clintonites scream that we must count ALL the votes including Mi. and Fl. and now what you're saying is that the Voters are irrelevant. Can you not see how hypocritical that makes you look?


"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Bill Clinton
by venician on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:24:11 AM EST

Re: President Obama (none / 0)

Not one iota of hypocrisy...in actuallity...it is we who just want the rules enforced.

The Rules committee: wihtin the rules

"pledged" delegates switching: within the rules

"automatic" delegates voting how they please: within the rules

It is Obama who wants to make up the rules on the fly!

Show me where it says automatic delegates need to vote for the person with a "majority" of pledged delegates!

It is we who say: "follow the rules!"


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:26:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

so basically (2.00 / 1)

in every primary, it's ok to go to the convention, even when it's not even close.

Good precedent to set.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:42:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: so basically (none / 0)

Was pretty standard until '92


by LDFan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:48:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

yeah and there's a reason (none / 0)

why it's not standard anymore.

In order to successfully convince delegates to give the nomination to her, she would have to prove Obama is unelectable and she is. To do that she would have to smear Obama, make him look bad, and essentially swiftboat him, and in the process, she will likely make herself unelectable to by turning off half the party (I know plenty of Clinton supporters who say they'll stop supporting her if she takes it to the convention after Obama clinches), which means it's likely you'll see a compromise candidate come out of the convention.

I can see how Clinton manages to keep Obama from getting the nomination, but I don't see how she gets it for herself.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:54:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: so basically (none / 0)

On April 8th of 1992 a full two months before he would secure enough delegates to claim the nomination Bill's staff was calling him the presumptive nominee:

[Apr 8, 1992] Clinton's showing yesterday convinced many Democrats that, even with the depth of concern about his character and his ability to win in November within his own party, his nomination is now all but assured. "Bill Clinton is the presumptive nominee," declared Mark Mellman
As to the states that are being "ignored"... these are the states that didn't even matter in 1992:


"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Bill Clinton
by venician on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:06:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thats why there is still going to be... (none / 0)

.. A GRAVELANCHE!  :)
/snark
by protothad on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:00:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why we're headed to Denver (none / 0)

Bad precedent for Obama to let this stick.  Let's see how he plays it.


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:25:09 AM EST

we're headed to Denver (none / 0)

because over the summer, Obama will implode.  The repugs are just waiting for June.  There is some good indication that the press has some big stuff on Obama that will come out within the next few weeks.  I've seen some of this stuff, it ain't pretty, but it isn't false either.  

And if they succumb to the fear tactics (withhold fundraising lists, riot, being called a racist), then for the first time in history, the dems will select someone who didn't win the popular vote.

Obama will be very lucky if Bob Barr succeeds in taking away some votes for McCain...and luckier still if that somehow gives him the presidency.  Do you think Obama will send campaign cash to Bob Barr?


by 4justice on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:35:46 AM EST

What stuff? (none / 0)

I'm in the media and I haven't seen any "stuff"


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:41:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: we're headed to Denver (2.00 / 2)

Some of us won't piss our pants like you so don't worry about what the Repubs do.  We can handle them.


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:41:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice little smear campaign (none / 0)


by Slim Tyranny on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:43:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And I've hear that Karl Rove... (none / 0)

... has built a mind control laser satellite that will turn us all into McCain lovin' Republicans.  I can't tell you the details but I've actually seen the schematics and its real!

We are DOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

/snark


by protothad on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:05:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A reality check (none / 0)

For those of you trying to spin this as a good thing for Clinton and a reason this should go to the convention... let me remind you that, historically, delegate defections usually go toward the front-runner.  We've already seen that trend with super-delegates, and there is no reason to think it would be any different with pledged.

That said, these people tend to be loyalists, and pledged defections won't likely be a factor in this.  Rather, you will see the supers swing hard one way before the end of June, MI and FL will be seated, and someone will concede.  This is not going to Denver.  All the party leaders, including the candidates, have said that.


by protothad on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:14:02 AM EST

Re: Why we're headed to Denver (none / 0)

I'm up for a floor flight.


by nikkid on Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:28:14 PM EST


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